Industry Watch
Gearfire 2026 Report: Firearm Unit Sales Likely to See 7-12% Decline
Absence of 'Demand Catalyst' Leads to Retailer Inventory Reductions
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✍️By ZRIntel Editorial Team📍Scottsdale, Arizona
The latest RetailBI Firearm Sales Index from Gearfire paints a sober picture for the retail firearms sector in 2026. Data from 2025 showed a 13% decline in same-store new firearm unit sales compared to 2024, and analysts predict another 7-12% drop this year. The decline is most pronounced in the shotgun (-16%) and rifle (-15.4%) categories, while handguns continue to be the most resilient segment of the market.
Retailers are responding by aggressively thinning out their stock, with year-end 2025 inventory levels down 10.6% year-over-year. One bright spot in the report is the suppressor market; availability has improved drastically, and inventory levels are up 21.8% as manufacturers prepare for a potential 'demand acceleration' tied to legislative efforts regarding the tax stamp. Despite the unit drop, average selling prices have remained relatively stable, suggesting that while consumers are buying fewer guns, they are still willing to pay for premium features and higher-quality platforms.
We are in the 'New Normal.' The panic-buying years are officially over, and we’re left with a market of disciplined, picky consumers. This 'inventory correction' is actually healthy for the long-term—it prevents the race-to-the-bottom pricing that kills small gun shops. If you're a retailer, 2026 is the year of the 'add-on.' You might not sell as many rifles, but you better be selling the glass, the suppressors, and the training to go with them.